On June 23 the British people will vote whether to leave EU or not.
Lately the leave EU camp is gaining traction, and the result is far from obvious.
A recent Reuters poll shows that Brexit is felt as one of the bigger risks for euro zone economic growth. Ok, I know, here we deep into mainstream media smoke&mirrors game. Anyway, since their manufactured reality is still what most people see, I think there could be some turmoil in the system if the Brexit indeed happens.
And is my firm opinion that the leave EU camp will win. This would be huge on multiple levels:
- even if basically reduced to US lapdog, UK is still the 5th biggest economy in the world, one of the main financial hubs of the world, and a great influence all over the world.
- it will deliver a big hit to the whole EU bureaucratic empire in a critical moment, while EU struggles over migrant crisis, peripheral nations overindebtness, stagnant growth and the slow dissolution of the social fabric that held together Europe in the last decades.
- some of the arguments brought about by the leave EU camp are strong. From the FT piece linked above:
“Regulation is our biggest handicap in the global race,” says Robert Hiscox, retired chairman of Hiscox Ltd, a Lloyd’s of London underwriter. “And if you add on to it the extra layer of very bad and corrupt government from the EU, the waste of money is phenomenal.”
- UK exit from EU because of a democratic referendum will ignite anti EU sentiment all across Europe, fueling anti-european movements that are already growing in other countries.
The Brexit will tear a gaping hole in the EU narrative, adding uncertainty to a situation that is already boiling under the surface.
This in turn could spark another euro crisis. Remember that June 23 referendum is just days before the halving of Bitcoin. If Vinny Lingham predictions about the short squeeze the halving will bring about are accurate, the two events could overlap in a spectacular fashion, pushing Bitcoin up.
Let’s see what happens.
One thing is for sure. Interesting times ahead.